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Rafu’s Baseball Preview 2009
By Alex Isao Herbach
SPECIAL TO THE RAFU
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Former Rafu staffer Alex Isao Herbach gives an in-depth look into Major League Baseball’s teams and their outlook for the coming season.
Kyodo News
Ichiro will look to retain his World Baseball Classic championship form into the upcoming season, after a lousy 2008 for the Seattle Mariners.
Kawasaki has proven himself in Japan, but may
still be an unknown quantity in the Majors.
The Baltimore Orioles are hoping for big things
from Koji Uehara, one of three Japanese pitchers
to join the majors this season. In 10 seasons
with the Yomiuri Giants, Uehara won 112 games
with a career 3.01 ERA.
If Hiroki Kuroda consistently shows the form that nearly earned him a perfect game last season, the Dodgers’ starting rotation could be solid, top to bottom.
Teams are listed with last season’s record and in order of finish.
AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST
Los Angeles Angels (100-62, first in division): The AL West is home to the best young talent in baseball; unfortunately, most of them are down in the minors. But that will change this season, as many of the game’s top prospects will be having a cup of coffee with the big clubs by the All-Star Break. That doesn’t bode well for the Halos because this club is as good as it’s going to get. Good thing for them it’s one of the most balanced in the league.
Season Outlook: One thing is clear in the AL West: the Angels got worse this off-season and everyone else got better. L.A. lost two of the best players in the game this off-season: *Mark Teixeira*, the best all-around first baseman not named Pujols, and closer *Francisco Rodriguez*, who set a single-season saves record last year. The fact that they both landed in New York means two things for the Angels: that the offense and bullpen, which have been boons in Anaheim lately, will hinge on unproven and/or injury-prone talent; and that Arte Moreno will be calling his N.Y. strip steaks, shell steaks for awhile. However…SP *John Lackey* and OF *Vladimir Guerrero* are two of the best at their position and RP *Brian Fuentes* will be a solid seat warmer for closer-in-training *Jose Arredondo*. Sorry to be a Cassandra, but that leaves the rest of the team to a roster filled with outpatients. Their inevitable injury woes mean the Angels are no longer a shoo-in to take the division. But they’re still a very good bet.
Keep an Eye On…SP Ervin Santana and 2B Howie Kendrick. These two have things in common: Both came into the league with shiny hype-halos over their heads; both have been inconsistent, whether by injury or their performance; both have shown flashes of absolute brilliance; and both are indispensible to the Angels’ success in 2009. If L.A. wants to repeat as division champs, Santana must prove last year was no fluke, and Kendrick must finally prove he can stay healthy.
Key Additions: OF Bobby Abreu, CL Fuentes
Oakland Athletics (75-86, third in division): One thing I learned about baseball while growing up in the Bay Area was to never doubt A’s GM Billy Beane. Never. It’s ironic that the man who invented “Moneyball” doesn’t need much cash to field a competitive team, but every year it seems, year in and year out, the A’s are at or near the top of the standings. Even last year, in the middle of the biggest reconstruction project west of Fallujah, they still won 75 games. But there are two words that spell change is coming in Oakland, two words that could mean Oakland’s first division title since 2006…
Season Outlook:…*Matt Holiday*. The superstar outfielder was one of the biggest prizes of any of the position players to switch teams this off-season. His addition alone makes Oakland’s offense a formidable one – even if his numbers *were* inflated by thin mountain air. From 2006-2007, the three-time All-Star averaged 126 RBI and 120 runs scored; last year he put up 88/107 despite losing more than a month to injury. The home runs will drop in Oakland, but the run production will not. He will be joined by former A’s MVP and wild-heart *Jason Giambi*, Beane’s latest reclamation project, who showed he has plenty of pop left after hitting 32 home runs last year with the Yankees. The rest of the lineup is filled with talented but underdeveloped bats, all of which should thrive without the burden of having to carry their offense alone. The bullpen will feature *Joey Devine*, who had an astounding .59 ERA in ’08 and *Brad Ziegler*, who last year set a record for most scoreless innings to start a career. Add to that a young rotation that will likely be fortified by two of the best arms in the minor leagues, *Trevor Cahill* and *Brett Anderson*, and you have a team that will push the Angels for division supremacy all season long.
Keep an Eye On…C Kurt Suzuki. A former Johnny Bench Award winner at Cal State Fullerton, Suzuki has become one of the most exciting young backstops in the game. In his first year as a starter, Suzuki hit a solid .279/.346/.370 and should continue to develop his bat this season. His pitch-calling and defensive skills have already proved precocious.
Key Additions: LF Holliday, DH/1B Giambi, INF Nomar Garciaparra, RP Michael Wuertz
Texas Rangers (79-83, second in division): The Rangers are like the *Shaquille O’Neal* of baseball: they’re brilliant at doing one thing, but whenever they try to expand upon that single skill, the result makes paying customers cringe. Shaq can ball, but he couldn’t act or rap his way out of a middle school dance; the Rangers can hit, but for the past decade, they couldn’t out-pitch the Bad News Bears. To quote 2Pac – a *real* rapper: some things will never change.
Season Outlook: Here’s the situation: the Rangers’ biggest addition this year was adding RP *Derrick Turnbow* to the worst pitching staff in the majors last season. That means that Texas’ biggest get was a guy with a 15.63 ERA last year. To be fair, Turnbow threw only 6.3 innings in ’08, but he did have a 4.63 ERA in a full 2007. So the pitching looks ugly – again. But the offense will be beautiful as always. It was the best in the bigs last year and will be a top contender for that title again this year. The first three projected hitters are all All-Stars, the fourth and sixth hitters are two of the best young hitters in the division, and their third hitter, *Josh Hamilton*, will be a top MVP contender, just as he was last season. And that’s the Rangers: a “Diesel”-esque offense and a “Shaq Fu” pitching staff.
Seattle Mariners (61-101, last in division): Let’s be clear about something. The Seattle sports scene has had more bad luck than Job walking under a ladder. The Seahawks have been underwhelming, the Super Sonics skipped town, and the University of Washington football team would make the Little Giants look like the ’72 Dolphins. With that said, even though my views on the Mariners will be downbeat, I say it with a fair measure of empathy. I am, after all, a San Francisco 49ers and Giants fan. I know what you’re going through.
Season Outlook: This year won’t be worse than last year. It can’t be. The Mariners were arguably the most disappointing team of the free agent era. No team with a $100 million-plus payroll had ever lost 100 games; in fact, none had even failed to make the playoffs. But you know all this by now. Things are always darkest before the dawn, the sun always rises, and all that other crap. Listen: there are plenty of bright spots for this squad. 2B *Jose Lopez* tore apart this year’s World Baseball Classic and will continue to be one of the most underrated position players in the game. The WBC was also a showcase for SP *Felix Hernandez*, the grizzled 22-year-old major league veteran. He’s been around for so long – he debuted at the age of 19 – it’s easy to forget that he’s yet to hit his peak years. This could be the year “King” Felix finally assumes the throne. He’s one of the best pitchers in the AL and a Cy Young isn’t out of the question. And just when broadcasters start writing off *Ichiro Suzuki*, saying things as blasphemous as “he may be the second-best hitter from Japan,” referring to Norichika Aoki, he gets the championship hit in the WBC. He’s still a Mariner and he’s still one of the best. Oh, and there’s some new guy named Griffey.
Keep an Eye On…Manager Don Wakamatsu. It’s not often that the buzz surrounding a new manager trumps any of his players’, but when you’ve become the first Japanese American head coach in MLB, who’s taking over a 101-loss team, you’re going to get the ink. Look at it this way: if Wakamatsu can be successful for a couple of years, the Mariners will be one of the favorites in the approaching Yu Darvish derby.
Key Additions: OF Franklin Gutierrez, DH Ken Griffey Jr.
AMERICAN LEAGUE CENTRAL
Minnesota Twins (88-74, second in division): The Twins seem to follow the same doctrine that Coca-Cola and Pink’s Hot Dogs abide by: don’t mess with success. Their 2009 roster is a doppelganger to their 2008 squad, which lost a one-game division playoff with the White Sox and missed the postseason for only the third time in the past seven years. The team’s young nucleus is as solid as any in MLB and should only get better over as the season progresses.
Season Outlook: On paper, the Twins are the most balanced team in the division. Their lineup is powered by perennial All-Stars C *Joe Mauer* and 1B *Justin Morneau*; the starting rotation is young but talented, with the dynamic *Francisco Liriano* and emerging star *Scott Baker* at the front end; and the bullpen is deep, anchored by closer-extraordinaire *Joe Nathan*, who has blown only 20 saves in five seasons. The only question mark for this team will be their consistency. Much of their success last season stemmed from their ability to hit well with runners in scoring position, a tough task to replicate, especially with such a young group of players. Yet, the Twins’ balance won’t over-pressure the kids to perform – Minnesota can beat you any number of ways. The division is up for grabs, but look for the Twins and Indians to battle for crown well into September.
Keep an Eye On…OF Delmon Young. It would be foolish to label a 23-year-old a bust, but that’s exactly what many writers and coaches – especially those in Minnesota – seem to have done with the troubled, exceptionally athletic Young. The problem was the atmospheric expectations that followed him into the league, not to mention the baggage from his throwing a bat at a minor league umpire. He projected to have tremendous home run power and has one of the strongest throwing arms in the game. But word out of the Twin Cities is that Denard Span will start the year in right field and Young will ride the pine. We’ll see if the competition will light a fire under him or if it’ll make him fizzle out once and for all.
Key Additions: 3B Joe Crede, RP Luis Ayala
Cleveland Indians (81-81, third in division): What a difference a season makes. Two years ago, the Indians were a game away from the World Series; last year, they were a game away from a plus-.500 season. The Tribe were losers in 2008: they lost SP *Jake Westbrook* and DH *Travis Hafner* to season-ending injuries; they lost Cy Young winner *C.C. Sabathia* to a mid-season trade; and they lost one of 2007’s best bullpens after posting the second-worst ERA of any relief corps in MLB last year. But despite it all, there was a silver lining in last season’s dark cloud. *Cliff Lee* was awarded the AL Cy Young and *Grady Sizemore* won a Silver Slugger Award, cementing his status as one of the league’s best all-around players. The duo will have to duplicate those laurels to keep the Indians afloat in this ultra-competitive division. The additions of CL *Kerry Wood* and Util. *Mark DeRosa* will help.
Season Outlook: The Indians have the offense to win a division crown, with or without production from the glass-shouldered Hafner, as Sizemore, C *Victor Martinez*, and SS *Jhonny Peralta* are among the league’s best hitters at their positions. It’s the pitching that might stand in their way. The reconstructed bullpen will have to stay healthy and SP *Fausto Carmona* will have to show that his torrid 2007 was no fluke. The Indians came on strong at the end of last season and got even stronger in the off-season. With their lineup, there’s no reason they shouldn’t still be in it in September.
Keep an Eye On…RP Masahide Kobayashi. His early spring numbers (15.75 ERA through Mar. 15) haven’t pleased the Indians’ brass, especially amid concerns that last year’s workload might have tired out the 34-year-old for good. Still, Kobayashi is one of only three pitchers to record 200 saves in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB), and with a stronger supporting cast in the bullpen this year, he should get more rest between appearances.
Key Additions: CL Kerry Wood, Util. Mark DeRosa, SP Carl Pavano.
Kansas City Royals (75-87, fourth in division): Many 2009 season previews for the Royals will end the way the Tampa Bay Rays’ did last year: “At least they won’t finish in last place.” As it turned out, the Rays’ predictions ended up being a little modest, considering they went to the World Series. While I’m not saying the Royals should start buying champagne now, I will go beyond predicting a fourth-place finish in the Central by saying the Royals have a solid chance to finish third. I’m not being flippant, either. This division could be the closest contested and most wide-open of any in baseball. In other words, the Royals won’t win the Central, but they’d have a great shot in the NL West.
Season Outlook: Last year’s Royals offense was like Captain and Taneal: slow and few on hits. After an inexpensive off-season makeover, the 2009 version now rocks the Daft Punk look: harder, better, faster, stronger. (Ask your kids to explain that reference.) There is speed at the top (with LF *David DeJesus* and the addition of CF*Coco Crisp*), power in the middle (thanks to OF *Jose Guillen* and free agent acquisition *Mike Jacobs*) and solid contact hitters in 3B *Alex Gordon* and SS*Mike Aviles*. Add two burgeoning aces in *Zack Greinke* and *Brian Bannister* and one of the league’s best closers in *Joakim Soria* and you have a very solid team. Now put that team in Royals jerseys, and you have the best thing to hit the Kansas City sports scene since Joe Montana took the Chiefs to the playoffs.
Keep an Eye On…Gordon. The former University of Nebraska standout was fast-tracked to the bigs, but has stalled the past two seasons. Still, Gordon projects to be an above-average contact hitter and has shown more patience at the plate of late. If he breaks out this season, so will the Royals.
Chicago White Sox (89-74, first in division): In baseball, teams with old lineups and young rotations are impossible to gauge. The key players on offense can – and often do – get injured while the youngsters can progress in any number of directions. The team’s success is dependent on too many unpredictable elements. The Chi Sox are that kind of a conundrum; they could win the division or be its cellar-dweller.
Season Outlook: One thing is clear about the White Sox: the offense is stacked and will give the Tigers a run as the division’s best. LF *Carlos Quentin* could have been the AL MVP last season if not for a late-season injury. With 1B *Jim Thome* and RF *Jermaine Dye* you know what you’re getting: 25-30 home runs and likely a stint or two on the D.L. But Dye has the added incentive of being in a contract year; history shows that stars play like All-Stars in contract years. Chicago also boasts two of the AL’s best young pitchers in *John Danks* and *Gavin Floyd*. If they continue to get better, and one of them can win 20 games, the White Sox have a good shot at the division crown. But an unproductive off-season could be their downfall, should any of the aforementioned players go down with a serious injury.
Keep an Eye On…2B/SS Alexei Ramirez. On top of having the coolest nickname in MLB (“The Cuban Missile”) Ramirez has also been bestowed as one of the best young players in baseball. He steals bases, hits in the clutch, plays solid defense and even hit 21 homers last year as a second baseman. But he’s only played in 136 career games, all of which were last season. He’s played professionally in Cuba so there’s less doubt that his rookie numbers were accidents. If he can improve upon them, the rest of the league could be having a Cuban Missile crisis in ‘09.
Key Additions: Inf. Wilson Betemit, SP Bartolo Colon
Detroit Tigers (74-88, last in division): This was the Tigers’ 2008 in brief: On April 1, baseball pundits were talking about a World Series in Detroit. On Sept. 28, those pundits were wondering whether the Tigers could catch the Royals – the Royals! – for fourth place in the AL Central. The problem wasn’t the offense, which ranked fourth in the league in runs scored, but the pitching. To say the pitching was bad would be as understated as saying the Earth is heavy. Only three teams in MLB had a worse team ERA than Detroit, which is even more remarkable considering they play half of their games at Comerica Park, arguably the best pitcher’s field in the league. The Tigers added some arms to the rotation and bullpen in the off-season, but the pitching staff will return largely unchanged. With every team in the division having improved over the summer, it’s hard to see the Tigers competing with their pitching. Then again, it’s hard to see the offense having to stay home again this October.
Season Outlook: No viable team is as dependent on a single component for success as the Tigers are on their offense. Headed by speedy CF *Curtis Granderson* and anchored by 1B *Miguel Cabrera* and RF *Magglio Ordonez,* Detroit’s lineup is balanced and productive. But it is also aging and injury-prone. Ordonez is 35, DH *Gary Sheffield* is 40, Util. *Carlos Guillen* is 33, and all three have spent substantial time on the D.L. in the past two seasons. As for the pitching staff, well – the Earth is still heavy. The good news is that Jim Leyland, one of the game’s most inspiring lions, is still the manager.
Keep an Eye On…SP Justin Verlander. Last year, I picked Verlander to be one of the finalists for the AL Cy Young. He responded with a 17-loss season and a 4.84 ERA. Still, he was the AL Rookie of the Year in 2006 and tossed a no-hitter in 2007, which helped him finish fifth in the Cy Young voting that year. The Tigers will need him to bounce back if they want any shot at respectability.
Key Additions: CL Brandon Lyon, SS Adam Everett, SP Edwin Jackson, C Gerald Laird
AMERICAN LEAGUE EAST
Boston Red Sox (95-67, second in division, Wild Card winners): Much has been made about the Yankees wastrel ways this off-season. By comparison, the Red Sox were thrifty – and may have come away with the better team. If they stay healthy, Boston will spend no more than $30.5 million on pitchers *John Smoltz* and former Dodgers *Brad Penny* and *Takashi Saito*, all of whom are low-risk, high-reward additions. The nucleus of a team that has won two World Series in five years is still intact, and at this point in the season, the only thing standing in the way of a third ring are the Yankees.
Season Outlook: Smoltz will come off shoulder surgery in May and will likely join a nasty starting rotation of *Daisuke Matsuzaka*, *Jon Lester* and *Josh Beckett*. Penny could be a fifth starter or join Saito in the Sox bullpen, by far the best in MLB. *Jonathan Papelbon*, one of the most dominant arms in the game, will reign over the ninth inning; *Hideki Okajima*, Saito and *Justin Masterson* will set him up. And then there’s the lineup, not as terrifying as in years past, but still plenty formidable. *Jacoby Ellsbury* stole 50 bases last season and will lead off, last year’s reigning MVP *Dustin Pedroia* will follow and All-Stars *Kevin Youkilis*, *David Ortiz* and *Jason Bay* will provide the power. This is as balanced a team as any in MLB. The only chink in the armor will be injury concerns. But with this much talent and balance, Beckett, Ortiz and Pedroia will have to land on the D.L. at the same time to do any damage to this team’s chances. Expect them to play deep into October.
Keep an Eye On…SP Junichi Tazawa. The 22-year-old fireballer took a unique path to America, skirting the NPB by asking Japanese teams not to draft him, and then signing with the Red Sox in December. He is another low-risk, high-reward player. His fastball has been clocked at 97 mph but he hasn’t pitched a single professional inning – not in Japan and not in the crazed pressure cooker known as Boston. Gambatte, Tazawa-San.
Key Additions: SP Smoltz, SP Penny, RP Saito, OF Rocco Baldelli
New York Yankees (89-73, third in division): The Yankees paid $423.5 million to land this off-season’s three biggest free agents, *Mark Teixeira*, *C.C. Sabathia*, and *A.J. Burnett*. According to the International Monetary Fund, that’s nearly double the Gross Domestic Product of Tonga. And they say there’s a recession on. But that’s the Yankee way: buy every great player in the game and hope they stay healthy. The fact is, the Yankees have one of the most formidable teams, on paper, in the history of the game. But championships are not won on paper – green or otherwise – and the Yankees have some question marks, questions that will have to be answered quickly if the Yankees want to win a 27th World Championship.
Season Outlook: Last year, the Yankee Way didn’t lead to the playoffs, the first time that’s happened since 1993. With this team, the most expensive in franchise history, anything short of a World Series victory will be a failure. To do that, their new bonus babies, Burnett and Sabathia, both must stay healthy for most of the season (my gut says at least one will not); they must survive two months without injured MVP *Alex Rodriguez*; and they must prove that *Joba Chamberlain* is more valuable in the rotation than he is in a questionable Yankees bullpen – though they still have *Mariano Rivera*, who may go down as the greatest closer in history. New York has so much talent on the payroll that they could all wear eye patches and manage to win any other division by double figures. But with an impressive Red Sox team and the AL champion Rays nipping at their heels, expect the AL East to be a war, down to the last bloody week of September.
Keep an Eye On…Inf. Cody Ransom. The journeyman will be thrust into one of the most unenviable positions in sports: replacing A-Rod in the Yankees lineup. It will only be for two months, but for the first week of the season, all eyes will be on Ransom. The early news is good: In his first 35 spring at-bats, Ransom was hitting an even .400.
Key Additions: SP Sabathia, 1B Teixeira, SP Burnett, OF Nick Swisher
Tampa Bay Rays (97-65, first in division): The Rays were the feel-good story of 2008: A team that hadn’t won more than 67 games in a season rides a wave of talented 20-somethings past the mighty Red Sox and Yankees and into the World Series. Though they lost to the Philadelphia Phillies, they proved the impossible by showing that baseball can succeed in Tampa Bay.
Season Outlook: The team that won the best division in baseball got better this off-season. The addition of OF *Pat Burrell* from the Phillies gives this young lineup some maturity and some pop to go along with burgeoning superstars *Carlos Pena* and *Evan Longoria*. The rotation’s big three (*James Shields*, *Scott Kazmir* and *Matt Garza*) can compete with the Red Sox and Yankees’ and might even win more games if they all stay healthy. They’ll certainly strike more guys out. The only weak spot for the Rays is the bullpen, which was their best feature last year. Losing *Trever Miller* hurt, and puts even more pressure on vets *Troy Percival* and the newly-acquired *Jason Isringhausen* to stay off the D.L. and close out games. After watching last year’s miraculous run, it’s hard to doubt these kids. But the Yankees and Red Sox got so much better this summer it will be tough beating either of them. Then again, I said that last year.
Keep an Eye On…P David Price. Everyone that has even a passing interest in baseball has heard the name David Price by now. His backwards K of the Red Sox’s J.D. Drew in Game 7 of last year’s ALCS is arguably the greatest strikeout in Rays history. But the Rays won’t push their young phenom and he will start the season in the minors. With the question marks in the bullpen and the rotation, they might have no choice but to recall him quickly. When they do, feel free to hop back on the Tampa bandwagon.
Key Additions: 2B Adam Kennedy, OF Burrell, RP Isringhausen
Baltimore Orioles (68-94, last in division): The long-term plan in Birdland these days seems to hinge on a player that doesn’t have a single big league at-bat. *Matt Wieters*, the 22-year-old catcher and Minor League Player of the Year, could be one of the best backstops in the AL by the end of the season. But he’s got to get there first. If he gets called up before the All-Star break, expect Evan Longoria-type production from the rookie.
Season Outlook: Wieters is definitely the future in Baltimore. But he just might be the present as well. When the biggest addition to a 94-loss team is *Cesar Izturis*, you’ve got to generate excitement somewhere, and the buzz around Wieters might be it. The O’s have another outstanding young player in RF *Nick Markakis*. In two-plus years, the future All-Star has improved in every facet of his game. Last year, his 20 home runs and 87 RBI were down from 2007, but his walk numbers and batting average improved mightily to give him a .306/.406/.491 split on the season. Markakis and Wieters – whenever he finally arrives – will help Baltimore forget about their complete lack of a starting rotation or a bullpen. Other than that, it’ll be a long countdown to Ravens training camp in Baltimore this summer.
Keep an Eye On…P Koji Uehara. One of three Japanese pitchers to cross the Pacific this season, Uehara will arrive with the most impressive pedigree. In 10 seasons with the Yomiuri (Tokyo) Giants in the NPB, Uehara won 112 games and saved 33, with a career 3.01 ERA. He won two Sawamura Awards – the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young – and two strikeout titles. His reward? A $10 million contract and a chance to face the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays. Good luck.
Key Additions: OF Felix Pie, SP Rich Hill, C Gregg Zaun
Toronto Blue Jays (86-76, fourth in division): The Blue Jays have got to feel like they’re in a Ben Stiller movie – bad luck just has a way of finding them. And it’s not funny. First they lose A.J. Burnett to their division rivals, the Yankees, which is like Brad Pitt stealing your girlfriend and then having to run into them once a month while they’re on their way to a restaurant that you can’t afford. Then the Blue Jays lose top pitcher *Shaun Marcum* for the year to Tommy John surgery, and will have to go half a season without the injured *Dustin McGowan*. That’s three key starting pitchers, for a team with an average offense, gone like a fart in the wind. *Roy Halladay* is good, but even he can’t put an entire team on his back.
Season Outlook: With only one front-line pitcher in the rotation, an oft-injured one at that, the lineup is going to have to average more than five runs a game to stay afloat in this division. And outside of outfielders *Vernon Wells* and *Alex Rios* the offense will be underwhelming. The Jays are relying on too many reclamation projects (3B *Scott Rolen*, SP *Matt Clement*) to be able to hang with the beasts of the East. The saving grace will be the bullpen, which was quietly one of the league’s best last year, and should be again in 2009.
Keep an Eye On…OF Travis Snider. Snider, one of the minors’ best young power hitters, will get his first shot at the big leagues after debuting late last season. He projects to hit 20-25 home runs in a full season and he should see plenty of playing time.
Key Additions: 1B Kevin Millar, SP Clement
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
Los Angeles Dodgers (84-78, first in division): Until a couple of weeks ago, the Dodgers were having one of the worst off-seasons in the country. They lost ace Derek Lowe to the Braves, the Red Sox practically stole All-Stars Brad Penny and Takashi Saito, and the biggest off-season acquisition was the once-solid Mark Loretta. Things were so bad, there was talk that the San Francisco Giants – the team’s despised rival – might steal *Manny Ramirez* away from them. But then, relief: the Dodgers got back their “dreaded” slugger (as in, dreadlocked) and seized control of the NL West once again.
Season Outlook: If the Dodgers were in any other division in baseball, they’d be in trouble. But with the rest of the NL West in rebuilding phases it will be their division to lose. They’re hardly a sure thing. The pitching staff will rely on kids, uber-talented and battled tested, but kids nonetheless. *Chad Billingsley* (age 24) is the de facto ace; No. 3 starter *Clayton Kershaw* has one of the nastiest curveballs in baseball but has been old enough to buy alcohol for less than a year; and flamethrower *Jonathan Broxton*, 24, who can hit speeds over four times his age, will have to prove he’s mature enough to close games at the big league level. The offense is dominated by kids as well: All-Star *Russell Martin*, *Matt Kemp*, and *James Loney* are all under 26. These whippersnappers will be infinitely more important to this team’s success than Man-Ram. If they can perform to their abilities, the Dodgers should win the division easily.
Keep an Eye On…SP Hiroki Kuroda. Kuroda, who will play his second year in MLB after 10 years in Japan with the Hiroshima Toyo Carp, will be the veteran of a still wet-behind-the-ears pitching staff. He put up an above-average 3.73 ERA and showed flashes of brilliance last season, but was susceptible to the big inning. If he can show more consistency, the Dodgers staff could mature into a dangerous rotation.
Key Additions: RP Guillermo Mota, 2B Loretta
Arizona Diamondbacks (82-80, second in division): I’ll be honest. On paper, the Diamondbacks don’t look any different than the Giants. They both thrive on superior starting pitching, have a lineup filled with young hitters, and have a bullpen anchored by a power-armed closer and two very good set-up men. The difference is that the Giants added two All-Stars this off-season and the D-Backs lost three.
Season Outlook: The D-Backs do have one thing the Giants do not: several young hitters with very high-ceilings. None has reached their potential, and if they can do so at the same time, as the D-Backs hoped they would last year, the Dodgers could have some company at the top. The question out of Phoenix these days is when 21-year-old *Justin Upton* will break out. It’s hard to tell, considering the young phenom hasn’t played a full season yet. But he managed 15 homers in an injury-shortened campaign last year and could easily hit 25-30 if he stays healthy all year. The other question mark on offense is *Chris Young*, who hit 32 home runs as a rookie in ’07, but had a poor year at the plate in ’08. And the pitching? Arizona has one of the best staffs in the major leagues. It’s not as balanced top to bottom as San Francisco’s is, but at the top, with *Brandon Webb* and *Dan Haren*, you get Cy Young-caliber stuff two out of every five days. If the Baby Backs can deliver this year – and only if they can deliver on time – the D-Backs could make some noise.
Keep an Eye On…SP/RP Max Scherzer. On raw stuff alone, Scherzer is in the same conversation as *Joba Chamberlain*, *David Price* and *Clayton Kershaw* as the best under-25 arms in the country. His electric 98 mph fastball and power slider, as well as some concerns about his longevity, make him best suited as a closer – that and his 10.6 K/9 rating last season. But he’s got four plus-pitches and the D-Backs look like they’ll be trying him out as the No. 5 starter this season.
Key Additions: SP Jon Garland, 2B Felipe Lopez, RP Tom Gordon
San Francisco Giants (72-90, fourth in division): The Giants suffer from the same Shaquille O’Neal Complex that the Texas Rangers do: brilliant at one thing (basketball) but embarrassingly bad at anything else (rap, acting). The Rangers had the best offense in the league last year but the worst pitching staff; the Giants have one of the most talented staffs but was the only team in the modern era to not hit more than 100 home runs in a season. Put the two franchises together and you’d have, well, the New York Yankees. Still, with a pitching staff as good as this one, in a division as wretched as the West, and the Giants have a solid chance.
Season Outlook: For all the accolades, pre and post-season, that the Giants pitching staff received last year, they were still only a middle-of-the-pack group in MLB, putting up the 17th lowest ERA in 2008. Most of that can be chalked up to an awful bullpen, which has been bolstered this year into one of the NL West’s best. *Jeremy Affeldt* and *Bob Howry* will be vital set-up men for All-Star closer *Brian Wilson*. The starting rotation is the team’s strength. Led by Cy Young winner *Tim Lincecum*, the Giants were second in MLB in strikeouts and sixth in team shutouts. *Matt Cain* would be an ace and a fifteen-game winner on many teams and *Jonathan Sanchez* bolstered his minor league cred with a solid season as well. As far as the lineup…it can’t be worse than last year. Remember the name *Pablo Sandoval*. The 22-year-old utility man shined in a late-season call-up and looks like the real deal. He’ll get ample opportunity to prove it this season.
Keep an Eye On…SP Randy Johnson. Having seen this 45-year-old marvel pitch in person, I highly doubt that he’s only with the Giants for a shot at 300 career wins. He’s tenacious, aggressive, hyper-competitive, and even after 20 seasons, he is somehow still a power pitcher. If his back can hold up, he’s got a shot at 15 wins. No joke.
Key Additions: SS Edgar Renteria, SP Johnson, RP Affeldt, RP Howry, INF Juan Uribe
Colorado Rockies (74-88, third in division): Over the past two seasons, the Rockies have shown us both the joys and the tragedies of being a well-run, small-market team. They won the NL pennant in 2007 with a roster filled predominantly with players they drafted. But their strengths proved to be a double-edged sword for the cash-strapped Rockies, and by the end of 2008, many had been shipped elsewhere to teams that could afford their talents. Through trades, the Rockies have assembled an equally precocious core of young players, which should be very competitive in a year or two.
Season Outlook: Of all the teams that sent players to the WBC, the Rockies may have seen the best returns. SP *Ubaldo Jimenez*, a nasty Dominican bat-breaker, broke a WBC record with 10 strikeouts in one game and has pitched well this spring. C *Chris Iannetta* hit .462 with an OPS of 1.357, solidifying his title as one of the best young catcher prospects in the pros. The bullpen can go in one of two directions, depending on how *Manny Corpas* and the newly-acquired *Huston Street*, two of the more promising relievers of the past three seasons, bounce back from poor seasons. Losing perennial MVP contender *Matt Holiday* will hurt. But with as talented a roster as theirs, and with the home-field air to benefit them along the way, the Rockies could surprise this year.
Keep an Eye On…SS Troy Tulowitzki. In 2007, he had offensive splits of .291/.359/.470 and hit 99 RBI, en route to placing second in the Rookie of the Year contest. Last season, he hit a measly .263 with 46 RBI in an injury-plagued season. Will the real Troy please stand up? Even if the Rockies get a mash-up of the two offensively, defensively Tulow is one of the best shortstops in the game.
Key Additions: OF Carlos Gonzalez, SP Greg Smith, SP Jason Marquis, RP Street
San Diego Padres (63-99, last in division): The Padres were the second-worst team in the league last season. The Padres started the summer getting rid of *Trevor Hoffman*, the best pitcher in franchise history and one of the last who had ever played an entire Hall of Fame career in one city. Whoops! Then they spent the rest of the off-season trying to send their current best pitcher, Cy Young winner *Jake Peavy* to the Cubs or Braves…and failed. Ouch! Then the Pads scrambled, found the best available free agent, and settled on, drum roll please…*David Eckstein*. Bonk! It sounds like comedy, but it isn’t.
Season Outlook: The Padres and Pirates will battle all season long for the title of worst pro sports franchise that starts with the letter “P.” If you have to pick one Padre to star on your fantasy baseball team, choose *Adrian Gonzalez*, who’s long been the most underrated first baseman in the NL. He hit .279/.361/.510 with 36 homers and 119 RBI last year, which earned him a long-deserved All-Star selection. Peavy will bounce back from a rough WBC and pitch his same brilliant self, though he’ll likely be in another uniform by mid-season. Sorry Padres fans, but the word of the year will be “bleak”.
Keep an Eye On…The Garlic-Parmesan fries on the Mezzanine level at Petco Park. Wash them down with a craft beer or two. Or five, if you’re a Padres fan.
Key Additions: SS Eckstein, OF Cliff Floyd, C Henry Blanco
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs (97-64, first in division): Whenever a team with a storied and hallowed championship drought can put together a great team, people get excited. When you’re the Chicago Cubs, and your last title was four years *before* the sinking of the Titanic, and you have a pretty good team, people go insane. More than a handful of pre-season polls had the Cubs winning the World Series last year, the centennial of their last title. But they were outscored 20-6 by the Dodgers and were swept out of the NLDS. They should have no trouble winning a weak NL Central. And if they’re playing well at the end of the season, the title drought could very well end after 101 years.
Season Outlook: The Cubs definitely scored high marks this off-season, retaining some of their best players and upgrading at several key positions. The lineup is still the best in the NL, with All-Stars *Alfonso Soriano*, *Derrek Lee* and *Aramis Ramirez* stacked up in the middle. Add last year’s Rookie of the Year *Geovany Soto*, Japanese import *Kosuke Fukudome*, and *Milton Bradley*, a free agent pickup from the Rangers, and you have *six* All-Stars in one potent offense. As good as the lineup, the starting pitching has the chance to be the team’s best feature. The Cubs re-signed *Ryan Dempster*, their most consistent pitcher last season, to join fellow aces *Carlos Zambrano* and *Rich Harden*. The only question mark is the new closer, *Kevin Gregg*, who beat out set-up man *Carlos Marmol* in the spring. He has only 62 career saves and will be thrust into a spotlight he’s never experienced. Will he have the grapes to replace *Kerry Wood* and help bring a title to the North Side? Or will he, or any other Cub for that matter, be the latest Billy in a series of cursed, Windy City goats?
Keep an Eye On…OF Fukudome. He was an All-Star last year, in his first season in MLB, but he slumped in the second half and stumbled through the playoffs, ending ’08 with a Spartan .257 batting average. The Cubs will need Fukudome to hit, and hit well, if they want to play deep into October. Early word out of Spring Training isn’t good: Cubs insiders say Reed Johnson could be the starting center fielder, not Fukudome.
Key Additions: OF Bradley, RP Gregg, 2B Aaron Miles
St. Louis Cardinals (86-76, fourth in division): The Cardinals lost a grip of players this off-season and landed only SS *Khalil Greene* in return. In the end, none of their moves should have much of an effect on the outcome of their season.
Season Outlook: Any pre-season prospective of the Cardinals must take into account *Albert Pujols*, arguably the best player of his generation. There’s not enough space to go into detail, but I’ll just say that no player in the *history* of professional baseball has better aggregated offensive numbers through the first eight seasons of a career than Pujols. A guy like that can carry a team into the playoffs by himself – just ask a Giants fan. The key for the Cardinals’ success will be their bullpen, namely *Chris Perez*, the baby-faced new closer who will take over for the departed *Jason Isringhausen*. If he can save 35 games, the Cards have a shot.
Keep an Eye On…OF Colby Rasmus. I don’t want to fawn over kids without a major league at-bat, but Rasmus has been touted as one of the hottest prospects in the game the past two years, drawing comparisons to the Indians’ *Grady Sizemore*. He may get a late-season call-up, and could be a difference maker, a la the Rays’ David Price, for a team with postseason hopes.
Key Additions: SS Greene
Cincinnati Reds (74-88, fifth in division): GM Walt Jockety, the architect of the many great Cardinals teams in the past decade (including the 2006 World Champions), has a very talented, very green team to start the ’09 campaign. They look to be one or two years from competing with the Cubs and Cardinals, but don’t be surprised if they win 80-85 games this season.
Season Outlook: This lineup is overflowing with top-flight talent, most of whom are under the age of 26…and still peaking. *Jay Bruce* will be one of the better lead-off men in the NL this year, setting the table for the likes of *Brandon Phillips*, *Edwin Encarnacion* and *Joey Votto*. The Reds also have a live-armed youngling in *Edinson Volquez*, who appears to be the staff ace after the mysterious breakdown of *Aaron Harang*. The bullpen and the back-end of the rotation are the weak points, especially after losing set-up man *Jeremy Affeldt* to the Giants. A feeble bullpen only leads to losses.
Keep an Eye On…1B Votto. As a rookie last season, Votto hit .297 with 24 home runs and 84 RBI. Compare that to the .285/23/86 put up by last year’s ROY Geovany Soto, and you have one of the most underrated and potent young hitters in the game.
Key Additions: OF Willy Taveras, C Ramon Hernandez, RP Arthur Rhodes
Milwaukee Brewers (90-72, second in division, Wild Card winners): The Brewers had a good thing going for two seasons, culminating in their late-season sprint into the playoffs last year, their first postseason appearance since 1982. Since being swept by the eventual World Champion Phillies, the Brewers have lost a veteran position player, their set-up man, and two of the best pitchers in the game. If the roster stays as it is, the Brew Crew are going to need more than a couple cold ones to recall their bygone glory…And I don’t mean Cokes.
Season Outlook: Losing *C.C. Sabathia* and *Ben Sheets* could prove to be the most catastrophic subtractions to any big league roster this season. Pitching was the Brewers’ strength last season, posting the fourth-lowest ERA of any staff in MLB, and Sabathia and Sheets were big reasons why. Losing set-up man *Guillermo Mota* -- don’t snicker, Dodgers fans – might hurt Milwaukee just as much. Wins will have to be manufactured by the offense, which appears to be consisted mainly of three players, *Ryan Braun*, *Prince Fielder* and *Corey Hart*. Braun will be the Brewers’ main attraction. The 2007 Rookie of the Year keeps getting better, and if his performance in the World Baseball Classic is any indication, he’s going to keep improving. That’s a scary thought for any team outside of Wisconsin.
Keep an Eye On…CL Trevor Hoffman. The Hall-of-Fame shoo-in was cast aside by his career-long team, the Padres, and he found a home in Milwaukee this off-season. The guy has about as much gas left as Apollo 11, but he’s got more moxie than a feral tiger with hunger pangs. If he can pitch two more season, 600 career saves isn’t out of the question.
Key Additions: CL Hoffman, SP/RP Braden Looper
Houston Astros (86-75, third in division): The NL Central is not what it used to be, and that is bad news for the ‘Stros. They’ll start the 2009 season with a roster full of holes. Manager Cecil Cooper had his guys battling at the end of last season, even flirting with a playoff spot, but he will need career years from too many unproven entities to be able to compete in this revamped division.
Season Outlook: The Astros don’t have any team strengths, only talented individual players. Those individuals, OF *Carlos Lee*, 1B *Lance Berman* and SP *Roy Oswalt* are multi-year All-Stars and should have stellar numbers again this year. But outside of them, the team is either unproven, aging, or in some cases, both. The bullpen is anchored by All-Star *Jose Valverde*, which starts and ends with him. The real horror show will be the starting rotation. After Oswalt, the Astros will send out *Wandy Rodriguez*, *Brian Moehler* and *Brandon Backe* for turns. (There’s a reason you haven’t heard of them.)
Keep an Eye On…2B Kazuo Matsui. Kaz was underwhelming in his first year in Houston after an injury-plagued season. He hit .293 but had only 20 stolen bases and 33 RBI. Then again, the guy did go down with an anal fissure injury in mid-season…it’s hard to rip a guy after that. He’ll have to go on a tear this season for the Astros to have any shred of hope to win the division.
Key Additions: C Ivan Rodriguez
Pittsburgh Pirates (67-95, last in division): What can be said of the Pittsburgh Pirates that hasn’t already been said about downtown Kabul?
Season Outlook: The Pirates’ biggest off-season acquisition was *Eric Hinske* and, I’m not kidding, two Indian cricket players who had never thrown a baseball in their life. Only in Pittsburgh could the plan for the future involve two guys who don’t even play the sport. With that said, the Pirates do have some exciting young players to use as trade bait, perhaps for a Norwegian curler or two. CF *Nate McClouth* and C *Ryan Doumit* paced many a fantasy baseball team last season, and OF *Adam LaRoche* quietly averages around 25 home runs and 85 RBI. The bullpen is pretty solid as well, with *Matt Capps* taking the ball from *Tyler Yates*. Sorry to say, Capps doesn’t get too many save opportunities.
Keep an Eye On…SP Don Veal. A Rule-5 pickup from the Cubs this season, Veal might make the team’s five-man rotation out of spring training. If he does, he will have the best big league name since Coco Crisp came into the league.
Key Additions: 3B Hinske, 3B Ramon Vazquez
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
New York Mets (89-73, second in division): The Mets will move in to new digs this season and are hoping that a new beginning will translate into a better finish to the season. The Mets have choked away two huge division leads in the past two seasons and missed the playoffs, despite having one of the best regular season records in MLB over that span of time. The Mets will once again start the season with one of the best-composed teams in baseball – it will be up to them what they accomplish with it.
Season Outlook: No team did a better job at fixing a weakness than what the Mets did with their bullpen this offseason. The pen blew a whopping 29 saves last season, a major reason they coughed up the division last year. This year it could be the best in the NL. They replaced injured closer *Billy Wagner* with *Francisco Rodriguez*, who set a single-season saves record with the Angels in ’08. All-Star *J.J. Putz*, whom the Mets got from the Mariners along with RP *Sean Green*, will be the eighth-inning guy. That will take tons of pressure off of the Mets’ subpar rotation, by effectively trimming a nine-inning game into a seven-inning game. Not that the team’s ace is a noodle-arm; *Johan Santana* could be the best pitcher in the game. The real question is the lineup. It’s filled with some of the best all-around players in the game – MVP candidates *Jose Reyes*, *David Wright* and *Carlos Beltran* -- but they have also made a habit of disappearing when they’re needed most. If these guys fail to hit in clutch spots the past two seasons, especially when October approaches, what makes this year any different? Still, with their ability to score runs and with a secure bullpen for once, the Mets are favorites to finally win the division.
Keep an Eye On…SP Mike Pelfrey. The Mets have been waiting for this kid to blossom for years. It looks like he’s about to bloom. Last year, at a green 24-years-old, Pelfrey won 13 games and put up a solid 3.72 ERA. He keeps the ball on the ground and can get strikeouts when he needs to. He should only improve with experience.
Key Additions: RP Rodriguez, RP Putz, SP Freddy Garcia, SP Livan Hernandez
Philadelphia Phillies (92-70, first in division): The Phillies were World Champions in 2008, making the city nationally viable for the first time since the Liberty Bell cracked. They will return their team largely intact, swapping power-hitter *Pat Burrell* with power-hitter *Raul Ibanez*. The lineup is stacked with MVPs, the rotation is headed by a Cy Young candidate, and the closer didn’t blow a regular season save last year. Not a bad way to start a title defense.
Season Outlook: Letting Burrell go to Tampa Bay was curious. He would have been cheap to re-sign and was a key component of their team last year. Replacing him with a 36-year-old at the twilight of his career is stranger still. Even so, this is still one of the best teams in MLB. *Jimmy Rollins* and *Ryan Howard* were back-to-back MVPs and *Chase Utley* is a perennial candidate for the award. Sprinkle in a solid supporting cast of contact hitters and you have one scary, potent offense. The starting rotation is dynamite at the top with *Cole Hamels*, the ’08 World Series MVP, taking the ball every five days. The bullpen was one of the best in the league last year and will be a strength again this season. Set-up man *Ryan Madsen* came on strong in the playoffs and should continue to thrive in the eighth-inning role ahead of closer *Brad Lidge*. As well as the Mets improved this season, it is difficult to imagine the defending champs not making the playoffs again this year, especially with such a balanced roster. Expect two teams out of the East to make it to October.
Keep an Eye On…OF Shane Victorino. The Flyin’ Hawaiian is the MLB equivalent of the NBA’s Shane Battier, a guy whose value is difficult to quantify statistically, but whose presence is indispensible for winning games. I don’t think the Phillies would have won the title without Victorino as their catalyst.
Key Additions: OF Ibanez, C Ronny Paulino
Florida Marlins (84-77, third in division): The Marlins, like the Tampa Bay Rays, are so young and talented that baseball people outside of Miami wince at the thought of how good the Marlins can be. As with the Rays, they’ll be looking up at two ultra-talented divisional rivals, which will either break them – or as with Tampa Bay last season – make champions out of them.
Season Outlook: Two of the Marlins have already arrived, 2B *Dan Uggla* and SS *Hanley Ramirez*. Uggla has averaged 32 home runs and 90 RBI the past two seasons, which is incredible production for a second baseman. Ramirez, in my opinion, is the best all-around shortstop in the game. Better than *Jimmy Rollins* and better than *Jose Reyes*. ESPN projects Ramirez to hit .311/31 HR/119 runs/96 RBI, as well as steal 29 bases. It doesn’t get any better than that. The Marlins also have a trio of live arms in *Josh Johnson*, *Ricky Nolasco* and *Andrew Miller*. Johnson rebounded well from Tommy John surgery late last year and Nolasco won 15 games. The 23-year-old Miller has the most potential of any pitcher on the staff. The bullpen, which has been lacking for years, should be formidable. Off-season pickups *Leo Nunez* and *Scott Proctor* bolster a pen that will hand the ball off to new closer *Matt Lidstrom*, who can hit triple digits with ease. If the Marlins can get consistent production from LF *Jeremy Hermida* and 3B *Jorge Cantu*, the Mets will have *two* teams nipping closely at their heels.
Keep an Eye On…CF Cameron Maybin. Along with Miller, Maybin, was perhaps the biggest prize for the Fish when they came over from Detroit in the Miguel Cabrera/Dontrelle Willis trade. The 21-year-old still had his braces in last season when he hit .500 in only 32 at-bats. The kid will bat lead-off this year and effectively launch the career that many in baseball have been itching to see.
Key Additions: RP Nunez, RP Proctor
Atlanta Braves (72-90, fourth in division): The NL East is the deepest division in the league, one through four at least, and the Braves are a confirmation why. The lineup features two All-Stars and a talented supporting cast of young players, the rotation added depth with the off-season signing of *Derek Lowe* and the bullpen has a promising young closer, *Mike Gonzalez*, back from injury. And yet, this team could finish *fourth*.
Season Outlook: The Braves have the constitution to make a run at the division. 3B *Chipper Jones* is a former MVP and has plenty left in the tank. C *Brain McCann* is entering his peak years and is already a three-time All-Star. SS *Yunel Escobar* was sixth in ROY voting in 2007 and had a good follow-up campaign last year, batting .288 with 60 RBI from the top of the order. The numbers seem underwhelming, but the Braves are absolutely smitten with Escobar; their reluctance to part with him was a main reason the Jake Peavy deal broke down. The key to success for the Braves will be their starting rotation. Lowe will join *Javier Vasquez* and *Jair Jurrjens*, a promising young starter who won 13 games and placed third in ROY voting last season. Vasquez will be especially vital; he must win 15 games if the Braves have any shot at the division.
Keep an Eye On…SP Kenshin Kawakami. Kawakami is one of three Japanese pitchers to join MLB this off-season. The profile on Kawakami projects him to be a Jamie Moyer-type pitcher with a little more fire on the fastball. He’s crafty, working the corners with a 90 mph fastball that he can cut and sink, a slow curveball, and a good changeup. He was an MVP in the Nippon Professional Baseball, but he couldn’t have picked a more difficult division to cut his teeth in. This year will be a trial by fire for Kawakami.
Key Additions: SP Lowe, SP Vasquez, SP Kawakami
Washington Nationals (59-102, last in division): The Nationals re-tooled as well as they could given their slim resources. They got lefty *Scott Olsen* from the Marlins to lead the rotation and fellow Fish *Josh Willingham* to add pop to the lineup. Then they got the cherry on top: elite slugger *Adam Dunn*. Will they compete in the NL East this year? No. Will they be the worst team in MLB once again? Doubtful.
Season Outlook: From top to bottom, the lineup is actually pretty good. Last year’s All-Star *Christian Guzman* will bat in the two-hole, followed by three solid home run hitters in *Ryan Zimmerman*, Dunn and Willingham. 1B *Nick Johnson* is a high-average hitter with pop, and should see a spike in RBI this year. The Nats are going to have to put up a lot of runs because their pitching will be horrendous. Olsen, in just his fifth season, will be the team’s ace. Outside of closer Joel Hanrahan, who pitched for Team USA in the WBC, Washington has little to offer in relief. Expect a lot of late-inning losses from the bullpen.
Keep an Eye On…CF Lastings Milledge. The 23-year-old former bonus baby, who signed for $2.2 million with the Mets, will be expected to show vast improvements in maturity, both at the plate and off the field. He will likely bat lead-off to begin the season, but will be on a short leash in that spot with Guzman batting behind him. His raw talent is undeniable; it’s his attitude that’s questionable. The Nats will hope the former trumps any discussion of the latter.
Key Additions: OF Dunn, OF Willingham, SP Olsen, 2B Jose Castillo |
